Ukrainians take to the streets: celebrating unity on the day of national
independence and demonstrating intentions to protect their economic
rights. Meanwhile the government is implementing hasty administrative
reform, without having settled on its foreign-policy strategy.
What direction does the foreign policy of Viktor Yanukovych take?
In just one month Viktor Yanukovych will celebrate his first year in the
office of the President of Ukraine. During this time the approach to
national foreign policy has changed dramatically. From being overtly
pro-western and Euro-Atlantic during the term of president Yuschenko it
appears to now to focus on Russia. With new legislation coming into
force Ukraine also declared insulation from any blocks and unions as
well as cancelled the provisions for integration into NATO. Various
political steps suit Russia exclusively: Russian businesses were
incorporated in to privatisation tenders allowing the take-over of
Ukrainian companies, particularly in strategically important sectors of
economy; The agreement with the Russian Naval Base included a long term
extension, in exchange for a short term gas discount. Thus even though
Yanukovych tries to demonstrate that he intends to preserve friendship
with president Dmitriy Medvedev Russia is gradually increasing its
pressure on Ukraine. This will result in the Head of Ukraine either
yielding to Moscow�s economic influence entirely, or a hasty political
rapprochement with the West to balance the Russian influence.
Although the first official visit by Yanukovych as President of Ukraine
was to Brussels, at present the relations with the European Union are
increasingly troubled by concerns over the Ukrainian authorities
restricting the democratic rights and freedoms of Ukrainian people. The
latest visits of European Commissioners to Kyiv proved that the
intentions of the EU's policy makers are to prevent the establishment of
Belorussian-esque regime in Ukraine. Viktor Yanukovych should
personally value the support of the European Union as it will allow him
to not only balance relations with Russia but also enjoy his trips to
the EU, communicate with European leaders and be welcomed as a member of
the European elite. To achieve these goals he should terminate the
establishment of the Russia model of control over society irrespective
of its successes in Russia and resume dialogue with the people.
Otherwise we face not only sanctions from the EU and the USA, but an
increased dependence on Russia and the potential for a social explosion
of similar magnitude to that of the "Orange Revolution" and equally
unexpected as was the case in Egypt.
People First Comment:
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs have stated that the policy of this
government will be to express the independence of Ukraine. There would
be no dependence on Russia but there would be close economic ties. There
would be no dependence on the EU although Ukraine would follow a path
of economic and later political integration with Europe. There would be
no formal engagement with NATO but they would continue to participate in
the partnership for peace programme. One year on the picture is very
different and the country is now looking more isolated than independent.
Relations with Russia are at best cool, the EU is becoming outspoken in
its criticism whilst the military, starved of funds is becoming less and
less effective to a point where joint NATO exercises serve little
purpose. The political parallels with Belarus have not gone unnoticed.
What has happened as a result of current policy is that Ukraine is now
no longer a hindrance to Russian-EU relations as both recognise that the
country has backed it�s self into a corner and can now be virtually
ignored in real East-West relations. Ukraine has become a problem for
both the EU and the USA as the economic and social conditions
deteriorate and so rather than expressing Ukrainian independence all
that seems to have been achieved is an expression of Ukraine�s
ineptitude.
Isolationism is not a policy; it is a result of a lack of real policy.
Ukraine needs a strong economic and political relationship with both
Russia and the EU. Ukraine needs to demonstrate that it has real
direction, that it is serious about partnerships, that, importantly, it
fully understands European and western values and that the Ukrainian
culture and heritage has something of real value to the world. The
present policy can only reduce Ukraine to a disruptive international
problem that the world does not need.
Ukraine remains separated on the day the country declared its sovereignty
The true depth of Ukraine�s social and political disruption was
illustrated recently by public action on the day of symbolic national
reunion of the western and eastern regions. The authorities confined
themselves to typical protocol: an on-screen presidential greeting, a
concert for top officials and provocative warning by the Minister of the
Interior concerning possible "bloodshed" by the opposition. The still
divided opposition celebrated the Day of Independence separately. The
majority, including "Batkivshchyna" of Yulia Tymoshenko, All-Ukrainian
Union "Svoboda" and "Narodna Samooborona" gathered at the historical
Sophievska square, where they denounced the Kharkiv Agreements with
Russia, called for the resignation of the government and stressed the
importance of alliance between all patriotic forces. This political
meeting gathered between 20-40 thousand people. Other parties, who have
declared themselves as oppositional to the government, such as "Front
Zmin" led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, held their own meeting on Kontraktova
square. Some party fellows of the former president Viktor Yuschenko
joined this meeting alongside several thousand citizens.
In contrast Ukrainian citizens, especially young people, demonstrated
more aspiration for a political reunion of Ukraine than that described
by politicians. Ukrainians in all major cities including Kyiv came out
in celebration of unity by joining hands and creating �live chains�. In
Kyiv young people connected the two banks of the Dnieper river with a
symbolic �live chain�, proving that Ukrainians feel united, despite
attempts by politicians to instil a sense of separation in the country.
Such a burst of spontaneous patriotic activity inspires hope for the
development of civil society in Ukraine. It also illustrates the vast
and widening gap between the attitudes of the people, and their
authorities that have chosen to ignore the citizens of Ukraine on the
Day of Independence. Thus due to an indifferent government and
separation within the opposition, hopes for civil society become the
most powerful factor of the development of democracy in Ukraine and
marginally raise its potential to become a successful European state.
People First Comment:
Is it any wonder that the good people of Ukraine are not prepared to
demonstrate their enthusiasm for the nation when the political parties
have singularly failed to deliver anything but more suffering on the
nation. In 1991 when Ukraine broke away from the Soviet Union the nation
had suffered from a lack of real investment for something like 20
years. The people had watched their standard of living slowly
deteriorate as the lack of investment in industry, schools, hospitals,
housing, roads and infrastructure really began to bite. Today the GDP of
Ukraine is 30% lower than at independence in 1991.
With the declaration of independence the nation believed, and the
politicians promised that democracy and freedom would create a new
Ukrainian utopia. The reality has been somewhat different. Initially
nationalist sentiment ruled and the authorities wasted valuable time on
matters of national pride and ignored national priorities. The
international community invested millions in promoting market economics
but virtually nothing on democracy education and institution building
and in this area Ukraine was left to fend for its self. As a result the
authorities and the opposition began to bend the rules of democracy and
democratic good practice under the weight of corruption. Money has
become the deciding factor to a point where today the national
philosophy has disappeared in a fog of self interest.
The political parties have become little more than money making
personality cults. None have parliamentarians that have been locally
elected from grass root support therefore it is little wonder that the
people feel disenfranchised. None have presented well thought out and
fully budgeted manifestos preferring the creation of policy on the hoof.
The people have little to believe in and little faith that any
politicians will work in their interests, therefore nobody should be
surprised if they prefer to celebrate the Day of National Unity away
from the limelight of political rallies.
False start of administrative reform
The Ukrainian authorities have decided to spread reforms onto the
administrative sector. By the Presidential Decree titled "On
Optimisation of Central Executive Authorities System" Viktor Yanukovych
has attempted to reform the state machine, as well as middle and
top-ranking state officials, in accordance with the challenges that
Ukraine faces today. There are currently around 350,000 state officials
in Ukraine. The declared first step of the reform involves the removal
of around 100,000 officials from various levels. Moreover, the number of
top-ranking officers has been reduced leaving each minister with just
two deputies. Central executive authorities are divided into six types
in accordance with European practices: ministries, services,
inspections, agencies, independent regulatory bodies and authorities
with special status. A positive outcome of the reform also includes the
reduction of expenditures on the maintenance of state officials from
national budget and a small restriction on the opportunities for
corruption.
At the same time the authorities claim that in order to implement
similar reforms in other spheres of Ukraine it is necessary to not only
reduce staff in state departments but also to increase their efficiency;
The IMF offers the same solutions in its official recommendations. The
reforms appear to have got of to a false start prove to be poorly
thought through. The majority of the reduced ministers will receive
equivalent positions in extended government services preserving an old
and ineffective management approach. The number of central executive
authorities does not be reduced but will in fact increases from 45 to
56. There is no clear concept for these reforms leaving the government's
new approach unexplained to its people. One clear effect of these
reforms is the assistance to Viktor Yanukovych in further centralising
power to his hands through the right to personally appoint the heads of
all the central executive authorities. Due to the fact that the
administrative reform was developed without requesting recommendations
from the EU, thus the functions of the executive authorities will have
to be reviewed once the Association Agreement enters into force.
Besides, the reform fails to address the issue of self-governance which
is one of the key requirements of the European Union. As a result of
undue haste this latest attempt of the Ukrainian authorities to
implement administrative reform in Ukraine may eventuate in failure.
People First Comment:
Playing the numbers game with the civil service is in reality a
deception. The question should not be �how many do we really need� but
�what do they actually contribute to the management, development and
growth of the nation�. It may well be that the country needs 350,000
bureaucrats working efficiently to ensure that the nation is
consistently running at peak capacity. Cutting the numbers may well
reduce the options for corruption but it does not guarantee that the
nation will be run any more effectively.
The Ukrainian civil service of today is virtually identical to that of
the former Soviet Union, little or nothing has been done to stream line
systems as reducing the bureaucracy would in many cases hurt the revenue
streams set up to maximise the opportunity for corruption. In reality
the civil service has done an excellent job in protecting its own back
but this relatively untrained and undisciplined civil service may well
be the President�s Achilles heel. For the President to achieve the
targets he promised in his election campaign he needs a civil service
that not only understands what has to be done but also has the will to
make it happen.
Cutting the numbers may go some way to streamlining decision making and
drawing the civil service into some sort of order but unless there is
fundamental reform of the systems of public administration, in reality
little may change. If the President where to combine the streamlining of
the civil service with a programme of incentivized targets then this
would be a radical change as it would break the back of the corruption
that is currently strangling many aspects of the governmental machine.
The reforms are a step in the right direction but in reality may not be a
step far enough.
Conflict between the authorities and entrepreneurs in Ukraine may lead to another revolution
After giving protestants' demands token consideration the Ukrainian
authorities adopted a new version of Tax Code which demonstrates a
somewhat nonchalant attitude towards the interests of entrepreneurs.
Thus, the government led by the Party of Regions chose to safeguard the
interests of business heavyweights and mark small and medium sized
businesses as a primary source of taxation, without considering the
hostile environment menacing the SME sector. One of the provisions of
the new Tax Code provides the tax administration with the right to
freeze any �offender's� bank accounts but fails to present a procedure
for unblocking such accounts.
The administrative pressure on entrepreneurs participating in the
protests at the end of 2010 was indicative of an aggressive attitude
among the authorities. In Kyiv and other regions of Ukraine there have
been reports of the authorities purposefully shutting down the trade
places of those entrepreneurs who participated in protests. Substantial
increases in the number of inspections and interrogations by the militia
have become common indicators of pressure.
Thus the population engaged in small and medium sized business - the
bulk of the middle class and a fundamental of civil society in Europe -
has begun to mobilise itself. As a result, fresh protest actions against
the government have already been planned for February 2011. The
schedule of demonstrations was recently confirmed by Igor Gurnyak, head
of the Coordination Council of the Assembly of non-governmental
organisations of small and medium-sized businesses in Ukraine. New
protests will voice such demands as the cancellation of the new Tax
Code, resignations from the Cabinet of Ministers, pre-term elections for
the Verkhovna Rada and the cancellation of a new Labour Code that
jeopardises the social security of hired workers. The ongoing battle
between entrepreneurs and the policy of the Party of Regions
demonstrates a shift away from the typical apathetic population, as
segments of the population band together to protect their rights. If the
government proves incapable of accommodating the demands of its people,
instability in the socio-political and economic fields may get
significantly worse before the end of the year.
People First Comment:
What is interesting about the recent public out cries in Tunisia Jordan,
Yemen and Egypt is that these revolts are characterised by cries for
democracy, jobs, lower food prices, an end to corruption and political
reform. This public reaction to social injustice has not been by a
radicalised few but by the middle class and ordinary people who simply
want a better standard of living. Recent national research carried by
the People First Foundation has found that the average middle and
working class Ukrainian family�s primary concerns are: jobs, food
prices, education, medical care, corruption, representation in
government and the rule of law.
Successive governments have ignored job creation, in fact now we see the
opposite as the tax police, enforcing the new tax code, force thousands
of small and medium sized enterprises to the wall. Food prices continue
to rise not simply because of world pricing but also because of the
cartels that have been allowed to develop unopposed in the food and food
supply industry. Education and healthcare bare the brunt of budget
cuts. Corruption is costing the country literally billions in illegal
offshore transactions, VAT scams and over pricing, democracy is under
direct attack and the majority of Ukrainians now believe that justice is
a tradable commodity.
The parallels between the social conditions in North Africa and Ukraine
are uncannily similar particularly with the authoritarian clamp down and
the middle class tax revolt. The only difference being that in Ukraine
the opposition is even less likely to solve the problems as they are
cast from the same die. The authorities had better rethink their
policies lest Ukrainians learn from the North African and Middle Eastern
examples and follow suite.
Historical quote of the week:
It is high time for me to put an end to your sitting in this place,
which you have dishonoured by your contempt of all virtue, and defiled
by your practice of every vice; ye are a factious crew, and enemies to
all good government; ye are a pack of mercenary wretches, and would like
Esau sell your country for a mess of potage, and like Judas betray your
God for a few pieces of money; is there a single virtue now remaining
amongst you? Is there one vice you do not possess? Ye have no more
religion than my horse; gold is your God; which of you have not barter'd
your conscience for bribes? Is there a man amongst you that has the
least care for the good of the Commonwealth? Ye sordid prostitutes have
you not defil'd this sacred place, and turn'd the Lord's temple into a
den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices? Ye are
grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by
the people to get grievances redress'd, are yourselves become the
greatest grievance. Your country therefore calls upon me to cleanse this
Augean stable, by putting a final period to your iniquitous proceedings
in this House; and which by God's help, and the strength he has given
me, I am now come to do; I command ye therefore, upon the peril of your
lives, to depart immediately out of this place; go, get you out! Make
haste! Ye venal slaves be gone! Go! Take away that shining bauble there,
and lock up the doors. In the name of God, go!
Oliver Cromwell, Lord Protector of England, 20 April 1653